Whose eyes are on Lebanon and whose eyes are on Iran?

Previously I have posted about Iran and Syria’s involvement in this war within Southern Lebanon. Some have said this is Iran’s first war fought on Lebanese soil. I have to agree. From MEMRI – an Iranian Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards had this to say on the 2 August 2006 – He states why the war is of up-most importance to Iran, and why they should continue supporting Hezbollah.

“Iran is a model and example for Hizbullah. The Iranian faith, tactics and experience are being put to practice in Lebanon… Hizbullah looks to Iran for tactics and moral [support], and we are proud that our experience [serves] other Muslim countries.”[…]

[…]”Iran supports Hizbullah not only for Lebanon’s sake. Iran’s own national security hinges on the national security of Palestine, Lebanon and Syria. Iran is of supreme importance in the Middle East, and the war in Lebanon will undoubtedly spread to Syria and Palestine. That is why Iran is currently aiding Hizbullah – because there is solidarity among the Muslims…[…]

[…]”…this war is of [great] importance. The infidel world has now risen, in all its might, against Islam and [against] Hizbullah, and we must stand firm against this worldwide heresy.”

The Syrian Government has also voiced it’s support for Hezbollah by releasing an article in the daily Teshreen, saying that not a single Arab voice has expressed opposition to the war, but has also questioned why other nations have not come to rally support for Hezbollah:

“Oh Lebanon, you have been left by yourself, [trapped] between the jaws of the Zionist crocodile.[…][…]”We have not heard a single Arab voice expressing opposition or willingness to help those who are standing firm, to fight with them, to defend them or to die honorably by their side.[…]

[…]…In the meantime, [the Arabs] are preoccupied: some [are busy] with the ceasefire… some are drafting statements condemning the violence, and some are wandering among the capitals of the [various] superpowers begging for a ceasefire or for any other settlement that will put an end to the slaughter…[…]

Seems all is not happy in the Arab world. Nevertheless the Iranian government is the one that is pushing this war and it is the Iranian government that has supplied Hezbollah with training and weaponry. According to the Counterterrorism Blog a drone plane called The Mirsad-1 was shot down on Monday night, it apparently contained explosives. Hezbollah has 8 drones that were supplied by Iran and there have been 30 Lebanese operatives who have trained at the Revolutionary Guards base. This terrorist group – Hezbollah – is one of sophistication, which has somewhat surprised Israel. Their proficiency is one that has come about with Iran’s help, and as Daveed Gartenstein-Ross from the Counterterorrism blog has reported, you have to understand the degree of Iranian sponsorship toward Hezbollah to understand this war completely.

“One cannot understand the current conflict in Lebanon without understanding the degree that Iran has sponsored Hizballah and built up its arsenal. And just as Iran is the key to understanding the present realities of the conflict, so too is its sponsorship a critical factor in understanding what Hizballah’s future will be after a ceasefire is eventually reached.”

Now my understanding is this, we should be carefully monitoring what rhetoric comes out of Iran’s mouth and also Sryia’s because when push come to shove it is Iran that is doing both. Here are just some of the voices being heard throughout the Arab media:

Syrian Reactions:

*Syrian Foreign Minister: “We are Prepared For a Regional War; I Am Ready to be One of Hassan Nasrallah’s Soldiers”

*Arab Writers’ Union Head: “Olmert is the Dracula of the Age”

*Syrian Government Daily Calls on Arabs to Wake Up, Since the Battle is an Existential Battle

*Syrian Government Daily on World Leaders: “You Just Get the Urge to Stone Them”

*Syrian Government Daily Writes In Praise of Resistance and Martyrdom

*Syrian Government Dailies Attack and Slander Lebanese Politicians

Irainian Reactions:

*Hizbullah-Lebanon Representative in Iran: “Everything We Have, We [Obtained] Thanks to the Islamic Revolution [in Iran]”

*Hizbullah Activist on Ties Between Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei and Hizbullah Secretary-General Nasrallah…“Our war against Israel is eternal…

*The Struggle Against Zionism is A Struggle Between The Entire World of Paganism And The Entire World of Islam

Iran will be in the spotlight in the not to distant future concerning its nuclear development which will give us a good indication at how stubborn the Iranian government is when it comes to international pressure. There was a transcript recently of a clip from channel IRINN on the 6th of August 2006 – you can view it from MEMRI and this is what was said concerning Iranians nuclear activity:

[…]”We continue on our path with perseverance. I promise you that such [Security Council] resolutions will not affect Iran’s nuclear conduct in any way. We will develop Iran’s nuclear activity.[…]

I am betting they don’t back down and I am betting that the pressure will be on Europe (oooo I wonder if Javier Solana will be in the headlines again) because of the Iranian oil Bourse that was supposedly put into place in March just gone.

I have previously posted on this and you can find that post called The EU grows as the USA Shrinks. Iran’s plan was to switch to using the euro for its oil payments and it should be noted that during 2003-2004 Russia and China have both increased their central bank holding of the euro currency. This would place the euro second against the greenback in Word Reserve currency. The use of the euro instead of the American dollar which would be adopted by many countries would provide the European currency with a reserve status that would benefit Javier Solana….oooops I mean, Europe at the expense of the American dollar which would lose out. As a result Europe becomes more profitable and would play a bigger role in peace negotiations in regards to the middle east. Enter the WEA which Javier Solana heads. Javier Solana is the EU’s foreign and security affairs chief. The following is from Moriel:

For the first time in its history Israel has agreed in principle to an international force to be stationed on its border with Lebanon to guarantee that Hezbollah does not rearm after the conflict is over. A force involving US or British troops would not be possible given the fact that their armies are already overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nor would it be acceptable to Lebanon and the Arab world.The one region which could supply such a force is the 10 nation military alliance known as the Western European Union (WEU). Interestingly the decision to incorporate the WEU into the ‘crisis management’ process of the EU was taken on Recommendation 666 of the organisation.

The key negotiator in all of this is the EU’s foreign and security affairs chief, Javier Solana. Solana has said deploying a multi-national force ‘under the umbrella of the UN Security Council’ would be ‘a difficult undertaking but a real possibility.’

For a more complicated look at what different scenario’s we could expect to see this site has some information, although the article dates back to the 17th Jan 2006 “Energy Bulletin” and something written by William Clark who is an American security expert; the article is called “The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target: The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker”

Now I am not sure if all this has happened yet, and perhaps readers of this blog know more about it. But I am keeping my eyes and ears open for any information in regards to

• the Iranian Oil bourse and world oil prices,
• Iran’s and Sryia’s rhetoric,
• the WEU and the EU,
• the Euro vs the Greenback,
• the International force for peace keeping in the middle east,
• and this Javier Solana man and whoever he talks to…

News just in… Javier Solana has called for EU states to join Mid-East force saying:

“As soon as a complete U.N. framework is approved, I will call on all EU member states to participate in a U.N. stabilization force – so Germany too,” German daily tabloid Bild quotes Javier Solana as saying, in a preview of a report to be published in its Wednesday editions.”

For more related posts see here